Arkonia U19 vs Polonia Warszawa U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Arkonia U19 and 1.13 for Polonia Warszawa U19, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Arkonia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arkonia U19 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Warszawa U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arkonia U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Arkonia U19 and 1.13 for Polonia Warszawa U19, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Arkonia U19 win41%

Draw27%

Polonia Warszawa U19 win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.4%
0–19.7%
0–08.6%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Arkonia U19

2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin U19 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa U19 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Escola Varsovia U19 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Rzeszów U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-14T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Zabrze U19 · 1-1 (D)

Polonia Warszawa U19

2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia U19 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa U19 · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław U19 · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków U19 · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa U19 · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T09:30:00.000Z · Arkonia U19 0-2 Polonia Warszawa U19 (Central Youth League)
2025-09-07T08:00:00.000Z · Arkonia U19 1-2 Polonia Warszawa U19 (Central Youth League)

Central Youth League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Legia Warszawa U19	12	7	4	1	11	25
2	Miedź Legnica U19	12	8	1	3	12	25
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Wisła Kraków U19	12	5	5	2	6	20
5	Górnik Zabrze U19	12	4	6	2	7	18
6	Zagłębie Lubin U19	12	5	3	4	1	18
7	Jagiellonia U19	12	5	3	4	2	18
8	Arkonia U19	12	4	5	3	-1	17
9	Raków Częstochowa U19	12	5	1	6	0	16
10	Lech Poznań U19	12	5	1	6	0	16
11	Talent Warszawa U19	12	5	0	7	-5	15
12	Polonia Warszawa U19	12	4	2	6	2	14
13	Stal Rzeszów U19	12	4	2	6	-7	14
14	Korona Kielce U19	12	2	4	6	-11	10
15	Arka Gdynia U19	12	2	3	7	-10	9
16	Escola Varsovia U19	12	2	3	7	-12	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.