Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Arlanda and 1.19 for FBK Karlstad, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Arlanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arlanda win

50.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.19

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arlanda home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FBK Karlstad away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arlanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Arlanda and 1.19 for FBK Karlstad, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arlanda win50%

Draw24%

FBK Karlstad win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.6%
1–09.3%
2–08.0%
1–26.6%

Recent form

Arlanda

2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Järfälla · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasalund · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 2-0 (W)

FBK Karlstad

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gefle IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlberg · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	28	20	4	4	45	64
2	AFC Eskilstuna	28	16	5	7	17	53
3	Arlanda	28	15	6	7	15	51
4	Enköping	28	16	3	9	3	51
5	Hammarby Talang	28	14	7	7	26	49
6	FBK Karlstad	28	13	7	8	6	46
7	IF Karlstad	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Umeå FC	28	11	6	11	-4	39
9	Assyriska FF	28	10	5	13	-5	35
10	Gefle IF	28	10	5	13	-13	35
11	Karlberg	28	9	7	12	-10	34
12	Sollentuna	28	7	10	11	-7	31
13	Vasalund	28	7	7	14	-22	28
14	Piteå	28	5	9	14	-18	24
15	Järfälla	28	6	5	17	-21	23
16	Stocksund	28	3	6	19	-23	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arlanda win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.