· Analysis updated 06:37 UTC
Arlanda vs Haninge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Arlanda and 1.53 for Haninge, a combined total of 3.99. That distribution gives Arlanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arlanda win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arlanda home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haninge away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arlanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Arlanda and 1.53 for Haninge, a combined 3.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–05.6%
Recent form
Arlanda
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasalund · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby Talang · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gefle IF · 2-0 (W)
Haninge
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Forward · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacka Iliria · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro Syrianska · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Smedby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eker Örebro · 5-4 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arlanda win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.