Alfred Skeet Reserve · Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Armadale vs Perth RedStar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Armadale and 1.95 for Perth RedStar, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Armadale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Armadale home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Perth RedStar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Armadale
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs UWA Nedlands · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Joondalup City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Joondalup City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth RedStar · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Dianella White Eagle · 3-1 (W)
Perth RedStar
- 2026-09-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Armadale · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Sorrento · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Balcatta · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 0-4 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2026-05-16T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 0-1 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2026-01-23T12:30:00.000Z · Armadale 1-2 Perth RedStar (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-06-21T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 0-2 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-03-22T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 1-1 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-06-29T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 1-3 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-03-30T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 1-1 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-07-29T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 1-4 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-04-15T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 1-6 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
- 2022-07-16T07:00:00.000Z · Armadale 1-5 Perth RedStar (Western Australia NPL)
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.