· Analysis updated 03:54 UTC
Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld U19 and 2.68 for Hertha BSC U19, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Hertha BSC U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hertha BSC U19 win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arminia Bielefeld U19 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC U19 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha BSC U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 24% / 18% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Arminia Bielefeld U19 and 2.68 for Hertha BSC U19, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–15.7%
Recent form
Arminia Bielefeld U19
- 2026-08-23T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lübeck U19 · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV U19 · 3-0 (W)
Hertha BSC U19
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T09:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld U19 2-1 Hertha BSC U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-07T10:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld U19 1-3 Hertha BSC U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC U19 win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.