Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Lübeck U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.95 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld U19 and 1.70 for Lübeck U19, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives Arminia Bielefeld U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arminia Bielefeld U19 win

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.95 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lübeck U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 17% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.95 goals for Arminia Bielefeld U19 and 1.70 for Lübeck U19, a combined 4.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arminia Bielefeld U19 win63%

Draw17%

Lübeck U19 win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

2–17.1%
3–17.0%
2–26.0%
3–25.9%
4–15.1%

Recent form

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2026-08-23T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster U19 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse U19 · 7-1 (W)
2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lübeck U19 · 9-0 (W)
2026-05-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV U19 · 3-0 (W)

Lübeck U19

2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 2-6 (L)
2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 · 0-9 (L)
2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-7 (L)
2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenthaler SV U19 · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld U19 9-0 Lübeck U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2026-03-21T10:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld U19 1-0 Lübeck U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arminia Bielefeld U19 win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.