Schüco-Arena · Referee Felix Wagner, Germany · Analysis updated 08:03 UTC
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.07 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Arminia Bielefeld the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arminia Bielefeld win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arminia Bielefeld home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Heidenheim away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 50.0% vs market 38.0%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 50.0% | 2.00 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 70.1% | 71.8% | 1.39 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 44.9% | 45.3% | 2.21 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.3% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.8% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.6% | 54.7% | 1.83 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 50.0% | 2.00 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Arminia Bielefeld
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-4 (L)
1. FC Heidenheim
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 5-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-26T12:30:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-21T11:30:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2020-06-28T13:30:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-12-14T12:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 0-0 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-12-22T12:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-08-05T13:30:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-03-04T12:30:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2017-09-23T11:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
- 2017-04-22T11:00:00.000Z · Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC Heidenheim (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arminia Bielefeld win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.