Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.83 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Arminia Bielefeld the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Arminia Bielefeld win

45.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arminia Bielefeld home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC St. Pauli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.83 for FC St. Pauli, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arminia Bielefeld win45%

Draw21%

FC St. Pauli win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–17.9%
1–17.6%
2–27.2%
1–26.9%
3–15.6%

Recent form

Arminia Bielefeld

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-4 (L)

FC St. Pauli

2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	9	8	1	0	12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	5	3	1	9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	5	3	1	5	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	4	4	1	9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	5	1	3	8	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	4	3	2	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	2	6	1	2	12
8	VfL Osnabrück	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Arminia Bielefeld	9	3	2	4	-1	11
10	Eintracht Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	0	10
11	Energie Cottbus	9	2	4	3	-1	10
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Holstein Kiel	9	1	5	3	-1	8
14	VfL Bochum	9	2	2	5	-4	8
15	Dynamo Dresden	9	2	2	5	-7	8
16	Hannover 96	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Karlsruher SC	9	2	2	5	-9	8
18	SV Darmstadt 98	9	2	2	5	-10	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arminia Bielefeld win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.