Arnedo vs Calahorra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Arnedo and 1.83 for Calahorra, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Calahorra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Calahorra win

50.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arnedo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Calahorra away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Calahorra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Arnedo and 1.83 for Calahorra, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arnedo win27%

Draw23%

Calahorra win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–29.5%
0–18.0%
0–27.3%
2–16.7%

Recent form

Arnedo

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebro · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol II · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna II · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manresa · 1-4 (L)

Calahorra

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Haro Deportivo · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alfaro · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasancio · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Agoncillo · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Oyonesa · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Berceo	6	5	0	1	13	15
2	Alfaro	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Calahorra	6	4	0	2	11	12
5	La Calzada	6	4	0	2	1	12
6	Pradejón	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Varea	6	2	4	0	2	10
8	San Marcial	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Anguiano	6	2	2	2	2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Yagüe	6	2	0	4	-6	6
13	Cenicero	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Comillas	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calasancio	6	1	2	3	-9	5
16	Vianés	6	1	1	4	-1	4
17	River Ebro	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	1	0	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Calahorra win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.