· Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Arnedo vs Ebro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Arnedo and 2.04 for Ebro, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Ebro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ebro win
68.4% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 2.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arnedo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ebro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ebro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 12% / 20% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.71 goals for Arnedo and 2.04 for Ebro, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.3%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–39.0%
Recent form
Arnedo
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manresa · 1-4 (L)
Ebro
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Ebro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Espanyol II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Olot | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Manresa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Reddis | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Terrassa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | UD Logroñés II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Girona II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Utebo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Barbastro | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Náxara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 3 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ebro win, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.