· Analysis updated 02:09 UTC
Arnedo vs Náxara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Arnedo and 1.10 for Náxara, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Arnedo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arnedo home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Náxara away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arnedo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Arnedo and 1.10 for Náxara, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Arnedo
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tudelano · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Utebo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 0-1 (L)
Náxara
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbastro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Reddis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Haro Deportivo · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Espanyol II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Olot | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Terrassa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Manresa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Osasuna II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Girona II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Ebro | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Reddis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Tudelano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Peña Sport | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | UD Logroñés II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Barbastro | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Utebo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Náxara | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.