· Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Arnedo vs Oyonesa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Arnedo and 1.60 for Oyonesa, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Oyonesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oyonesa win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arnedo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oyonesa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oyonesa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Arnedo and 1.60 for Oyonesa, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Arnedo
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Terrassa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Manresa · 1-4 (L)
Oyonesa
- 2026-06-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnedo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arnedo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Varea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Varea · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Varea · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berceo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Haro Deportivo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Calahorra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | La Calzada | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Pradejón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Agoncillo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Anguiano | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Oyonesa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Yagüe | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Cenicero | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Comillas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oyonesa win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.