Stadion u Parku · Analysis updated 23:06 UTC
Arsenal Tivat vs Otrant-Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Arsenal Tivat and 1.71 for Otrant-Olympic, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Otrant-Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Otrant-Olympic win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arsenal Tivat home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Otrant-Olympic away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Arsenal Tivat
- 2026-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 2-1 (W)
Otrant-Olympic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bokelj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Buducnost Podgorica · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 1-2 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2025-05-18T15:30:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 1-4 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2025-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 2-1 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2024-11-24T12:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 2-0 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2024-09-22T13:30:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 0-0 Otrant-Olympic (First League)
- 2020-03-11T13:30:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 3-2 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
- 2019-10-20T11:30:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 3-1 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
- 2019-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 0-1 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
- 2019-04-24T14:30:00.000Z · Arsenal Tivat 0-1 Otrant-Olympic (Second League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Mornar | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Dečić | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Petrovac | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Jezero | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Otrant-Olympic win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.