· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Arsenal Tula II vs Kvant Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Arsenal Tula II and 0.95 for Kvant, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Arsenal Tula II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arsenal Tula II win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arsenal Tula II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kvant away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Arsenal Tula II
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Orel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva III · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit Penza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 1-2 (L)
Kvant
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Strogino · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shumbrat · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Tambov · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Avangard Kursk · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 1-3 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-09-21T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 1-0 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 1-1 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-09-08T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 2-0 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-05-26T13:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 1-2 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 0-0 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-11-09T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 1-2 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-09-17T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 5-0 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-05-21T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 1-0 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
- 2022-04-16T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula II 1-1 Kvant (Second League - Group 3)
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arsenal Tula II win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.