Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.45 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Spartak Kostroma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spartak Kostroma win

49.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arsenal Tula home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Kostroma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Kostroma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 23% / 27% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.45 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal Tula win23%

Draw27%

Spartak Kostroma win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.8%
1–112.4%
0–210.0%
0–09.5%
1–29.0%

Recent form

Arsenal Tula

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 2-0 (W)

Spartak Kostroma

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-21T13:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula 1-1 Spartak Kostroma (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula 1-1 Spartak Kostroma (First League)
2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal Tula 1-2 Spartak Kostroma (First League)

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	13	1	1	29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	10	2	3	11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	8	4	3	15	28
4	Ural	15	8	4	3	14	28
5	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
6	Veles	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	FC UFA	15	5	6	4	3	21
8	Volga Ulyanovsk	16	6	3	7	-1	21
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
10	Rotor Volgograd	15	5	4	6	5	19
11	Arsenal Tula	15	5	4	6	-10	19
12	Chelyabinsk	15	4	3	8	-7	15
13	Enisey	15	3	5	7	-14	14
14	Leningradets	15	3	5	7	-14	14
15	KAMAZ	15	3	4	8	-8	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	15	4	1	10	-11	13
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	2	4	9	-10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	2	4	9	-14	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spartak Kostroma win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.