Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.98 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arsenal home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aston Villa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win56%

Draw23%

Aston Villa win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.3%
1–111.1%
2–010.1%
2–19.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-0 (W)

Aston Villa

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2025-12-30T20:15:00.000Z · Arsenal 4-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2025-12-06T12:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2025-01-18T17:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2024-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2024-04-14T15:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 0-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2023-12-09T17:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 0-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2023-02-18T12:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 4-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2022-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
2022-03-19T12:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.