Haradski Stadium · Analysis updated 08:08 UTC
Arsenal vs Bate Borisov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.13 for Bate Borisov, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Bate Borisov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arsenal home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bate Borisov away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bate Borisov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 33% / 30% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Arsenal and 1.13 for Bate Borisov, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Arsenal
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Baranovichi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
Bate Borisov
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -20 | 23 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.