Emirates Stadium · Referee C. Kavanagh · Analysis updated 09:16 UTC
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.18 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arsenal win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Arsenal home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia Dortmund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Arsenal
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-3 Borussia Dortmund (Emirates Cup)
- 2014-11-26T19:45:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-0 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)
- 2014-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · Arsenal 0-2 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)
- 2013-11-06T19:45:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-0 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)
- 2013-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-2 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)
- 2011-11-23T19:45:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)
- 2011-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-1 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League)
Emirates Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.