Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.92 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal win

67.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.22 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arsenal home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bournemouth away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win67%

Draw19%

Bournemouth win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.7%
2–19.8%
1–09.6%
1–18.8%
3–07.9%

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-0 (W)

Bournemouth

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-11T11:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2026-01-03T17:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2025-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2024-10-19T16:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 0-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2024-07-25T02:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-1 Bournemouth (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 3-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2023-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 4-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2023-03-04T15:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2022-08-20T16:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 3-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
2020-01-27T20:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-1 Bournemouth (FA Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.