Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.88 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal win

61.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arsenal home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win62%

Draw22%

Crystal Palace win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.8%
2–011.3%
1–110.4%
2–19.8%
3–07.1%

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)

Crystal Palace

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2025-12-23T20:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-1 Crystal Palace (League Cup)
2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2025-04-23T19:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2024-12-21T17:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 5-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2024-12-18T19:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 3-2 Crystal Palace (League Cup)
2024-01-20T12:30:00.000Z · Arsenal 5-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2023-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2023-03-19T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 4-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
2022-08-05T19:00:00.000Z · Arsenal 2-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.