Arsenal vs FC Minsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.10 for FC Minsk, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arsenal home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Minsk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Arsenal and 1.10 for FC Minsk, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win42%

Draw27%

FC Minsk win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.7%
0–19.7%
0–08.8%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Baranovichi · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)

FC Minsk

2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	26	14	5	7	19	47
5	Neman	26	13	4	9	7	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	26	9	6	11	-3	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	26	8	7	11	-2	31
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	26	5	9	12	-20	24
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	26	3	11	12	-16	20
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.