Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.85 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arsenal home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Arsenal and 0.85 for Fulham, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win62%

Draw22%

Fulham win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.1%
2–011.5%
1–110.4%
2–19.8%
3–07.3%

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-0 (W)

Fulham

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arsenal win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.