Emirates Stadium · Analysis updated 06:37 UTC
Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Arsenal W and 0.80 for Aston Villa W, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Arsenal W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Arsenal W win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aston Villa W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Arsenal W and 0.80 for Aston Villa W, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
Arsenal W
Aston Villa W
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal W 3-0 Aston Villa W (FA WSL)
- 2026-01-18T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal W 2-0 Aston Villa W (FA Women's Cup)
- 2025-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · Arsenal W 1-1 Aston Villa W (FA WSL)
- 2025-04-30T17:00:00.000Z · Arsenal W 2-5 Aston Villa W (FA WSL)
- 2024-12-08T14:00:00.000Z · Arsenal W 4-0 Aston Villa W (FA WSL)
- 2024-03-24T18:45:00.000Z · Arsenal W 3-1 Aston Villa W (FA WSL)
- 2024-03-06T19:15:00.000Z · Arsenal W 4-0 Aston Villa W (WSL Cup)
- 2023-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · Arsenal W 2-1 Aston Villa W (FA WSL)
- 2023-05-27T13:30:00.000Z · Arsenal W 0-2 Aston Villa W (FA WSL)
- 2023-01-26T19:45:00.000Z · Arsenal W 3-0 Aston Villa W (WSL Cup)
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manchester United W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arsenal W win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.