Emirates Stadium · Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Arsenal W vs SL Benfica W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Arsenal W and 1.18 for SL Benfica W, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Arsenal W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Arsenal W win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SL Benfica W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Arsenal W and 1.18 for SL Benfica W, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Arsenal W
SL Benfica W
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Marítimo W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Lyon W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Arsenal W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Chelsea W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Køge W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Manchester City W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Real Madrid W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Austria Wien W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Paris FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | OH Leuven W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roma W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Häcken W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arsenal W win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.