Unidad Deportiva Martín Alarcón Hisojo · Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
Artesanos Metepec vs Caja Oblatos CFD Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Artesanos Metepec and 1.05 for Caja Oblatos CFD, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Artesanos Metepec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Artesanos Metepec win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Artesanos Metepec home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caja Oblatos CFD away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Artesanos Metepec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Artesanos Metepec and 1.05 for Caja Oblatos CFD, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
Artesanos Metepec
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs La Tribu de Cd. Juarez · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acambaro · 3-2 (W)
Caja Oblatos CFD
- 2026-03-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Artesanos Metepec · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aguacateros CDU · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-02-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Racing · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-02-14T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-02-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracanes Izcalli · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Irapuato II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Celaya 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 5 | Huracanes Izcalli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Ayense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Internacional Laguna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -11 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Artesanos Metepec win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.