Kigali Pele Stadium · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Aruba vs Liechtenstein Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.82 expected goals for Aruba and 1.28 for Liechtenstein, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Aruba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aruba win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
2.82 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aruba home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Liechtenstein away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aruba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.82 goals for Aruba and 1.28 for Liechtenstein, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.6%
- 3–06.2%
- 1–16.0%
Recent form
Aruba
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Anguilla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua and Barbuda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Curaçao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Liechtenstein · 4-1 (W)
Liechtenstein
- 2026-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gibraltar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Malta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lithuania · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cyprus · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FIFA Series table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Aruba | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Puerto Rico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Azerbaijan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Kenya | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezuela | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Finland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Uzbekistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Indonesia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Guam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | US Virgin Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | New Zealand | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | China | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Chile | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | Sierra Leone | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Comoros | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 25 | Gabon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 26 | Estonia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Namibia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Trinidad and Tobago | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 29 | St. Lucia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 30 | Curaçao | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 31 | Grenada | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
| 32 | American Samoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 33 | Macau | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 34 | Solomon Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aruba win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.