ARUC U20 vs Samambaia U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for ARUC U20 and 2.39 for Samambaia U20, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Samambaia U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Samambaia U20 win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 2.39

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ARUC U20 home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Samambaia U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 23% / 19% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for ARUC U20 and 2.39 for Samambaia U20, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

ARUC U20 win23%

Draw19%

Samambaia U20 win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–28.9%
1–17.5%
1–37.1%
2–26.4%
0–26.2%

Recent form

ARUC U20

2026-07-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs CFZ Brasilia U20 · 0-10 (L)
2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Capital TO U20 · 0-13 (L)
2026-07-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brasiliense U20 · 0-6 (L)
2026-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Samambaia U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sobradinho U20 · 0-8 (L)

Samambaia U20

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Brasiliense U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brasiliense U20	3	3	0	0	21	9
2	Legiao U20	3	3	0	0	3	9
3	Sobradinho U20	2	2	0	0	11	6
4	Taguatinga U20	3	2	0	1	5	6
5	Capital TO U20	2	1	1	0	4	4
6	Samambaia U20	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Gama U20	4	1	0	3	0	3
8	Brazlândia FC SAF U20	3	1	0	2	-1	3
9	CFZ Brasilia U20	3	1	0	2	-7	3
10	ARUC U20	3	0	0	3	-14	0
11	Planaltina U20	3	0	0	3	-21	0
1	Planaltina DF U20	4	4	0	0	14	12
2	Grêmio Valparaíso U20	3	2	0	1	6	6
3	Canaã U20	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Real Brasília U20	3	2	0	1	4	6
5	Brasília U20	3	2	0	1	1	6
6	Paranoa U20	4	1	1	2	-5	4
7	Cruzeiro U20	4	1	1	2	-5	4
8	Ceilandense U20	4	1	1	2	-7	4
9	Santa Maria U20	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Luziânia U20	3	0	1	2	-6	1
11	Ceilândia U20	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Samambaia U20 win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.