Arzignano Valchiampo vs Alcione Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Arzignano Valchiampo and 1.33 for Alcione, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Arzignano Valchiampo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Arzignano Valchiampo win

47.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Arzignano Valchiampo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alcione away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arzignano Valchiampo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Arzignano Valchiampo and 1.33 for Alcione, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Arzignano Valchiampo win47%

Draw23%

Alcione win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.3%
1–08.1%
1–27.1%
2–07.0%

Recent form

Arzignano Valchiampo

2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Renate · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)

Alcione

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trento · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs PRO Vercelli · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	13	27
2	Trento	10	5	5	0	10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	5	4	1	9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Treviso	10	4	4	2	3	16
7	Alcione	10	3	6	1	2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	0	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	-4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	2	4	4	-5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	-6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	-3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Arzignano Valchiampo win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.