· Analysis updated 17:24 UTC
AS Agareb vs BS Bouhajla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for AS Agareb and 0.63 for BS Bouhajla, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives AS Agareb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.4% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Agareb home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Agareb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 35% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for AS Agareb and 0.63 for BS Bouhajla, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 28%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.2%
- 1–019.6%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
AS Agareb
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Soussien · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfax Railways · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs M'saken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouselem · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BS Bouhajla · 1-0 (W)
BS Bouhajla
- 2026-05-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Tunis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mégrine · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Chebba · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Agareb · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · AS Agareb 1-0 BS Bouhajla (Ligue 2)
- 2025-11-22T13:00:00.000Z · AS Agareb 1-3 BS Bouhajla (Ligue 2)
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redeyef | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | EM Mahdia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | AS Kasserine | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | JS Kairouanaise | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | AS Soliman | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Mégrine | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | BS Bouhajla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | M'saken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Sfax Railways | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Ksour Essef | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sporting Ben Arous | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Korba | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Kalaâ Sport | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Jendouba Sport | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | US Tataouine | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Bouchamma | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Stade Gabesien | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 18 | Béni-Khalled | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Stade Soussien | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | AS Gabes | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Ariana | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | CS Chebba | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Olympique du Kef | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | AS Agareb | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 25 | Moknine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 26 | Kerkennah | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | CO Medenine | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | EGS Gafsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.