AS Agareb vs EM Mahdia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for AS Agareb and 0.85 for EM Mahdia, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives AS Agareb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AS Agareb home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
EM Mahdia away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Agareb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 32% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for AS Agareb and 0.85 for EM Mahdia, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

AS Agareb win38%

Draw32%

EM Mahdia win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–015.7%
1–015.7%
0–113.4%
1–113.4%
2–07.9%

Recent form

AS Agareb

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Soussien · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfax Railways · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs M'saken · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouselem · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BS Bouhajla · 1-0 (W)

EM Mahdia

2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ksour Essef · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kerkennah · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Menzel Bourguiba · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mégrine · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-05T13:30:00.000Z · AS Agareb 0-0 EM Mahdia (Ligue 2)
2025-11-07T13:30:00.000Z · AS Agareb 0-1 EM Mahdia (Ligue 2)

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Redeyef	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	EM Mahdia	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AS Kasserine	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	JS Kairouanaise	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	AS Soliman	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Mégrine	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	BS Bouhajla	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	M'saken	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Sfax Railways	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Ksour Essef	2	1	1	0	1	4
11	Sporting Ben Arous	2	1	0	1	2	3
12	Korba	2	1	0	1	2	3
13	Kalaâ Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Jendouba Sport	2	1	0	1	0	3
15	US Tataouine	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Bouchamma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Stade Gabesien	2	0	2	0	0	2
18	Béni-Khalled	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Stade Soussien	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	AS Gabes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Ariana	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	CS Chebba	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Olympique du Kef	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	AS Agareb	2	0	1	1	-3	1
25	Moknine	2	0	1	1	-3	1
26	Kerkennah	2	0	0	2	-2	0
27	CO Medenine	2	0	0	2	-2	0
28	EGS Gafsa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.