· Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
AS Agareb vs Sporting Ben Arous Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for AS Agareb and 1.37 for Sporting Ben Arous, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Sporting Ben Arous the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Ben Arous win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Agareb home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Ben Arous away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Ben Arous to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 28% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for AS Agareb and 1.37 for Sporting Ben Arous, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.8%
Recent form
AS Agareb
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs EM Mahdia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kerkennah · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Ben Arous · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Soussien · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfax Railways · 1-2 (L)
Sporting Ben Arous
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs BS Bouhajla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Agareb · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EM Mahdia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Menzel Bourguiba · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Kasserine | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Mégrine | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Korba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | EM Mahdia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | M'saken | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Ksour Essef | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | CS Chebba | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Jendouba Sport | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | US Tataouine | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Bouchamma | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Redeyef | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kalaâ Sport | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | Sfax Railways | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | JS Kairouanaise | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | AS Soliman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Sporting Ben Arous | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 17 | Ariana | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 18 | Stade Gabesien | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 19 | BS Bouhajla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 20 | Stade Soussien | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 21 | Olympique du Kef | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 22 | EGS Gafsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | AS Agareb | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Béni-Khalled | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 25 | AS Gabes | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 26 | Kerkennah | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | Moknine | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 28 | CO Medenine | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Ben Arous win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.