· Analysis updated 15:15 UTC
AS Agareb vs Stade Gabesien Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for AS Agareb and 1.03 for Stade Gabesien, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives AS Agareb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Agareb home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Gabesien away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Agareb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for AS Agareb and 1.03 for Stade Gabesien, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
AS Agareb
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Soussien · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sfax Railways · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs M'saken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouselem · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BS Bouhajla · 1-0 (W)
Stade Gabesien
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Djelma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.