· Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
AS Eupen vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for AS Eupen and 2.38 for Alemannia Aachen, a combined total of 4.90. That distribution gives AS Eupen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Eupen home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alemannia Aachen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Eupen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 19% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for AS Eupen and 2.38 for Alemannia Aachen, a combined 4.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.7%
- 2–15.6%
- 3–25.6%
- 1–25.3%
- 2–35.3%
Recent form
AS Eupen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RSC Anderlecht II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Liège · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Patro Eisden · 2-1 (W)
Alemannia Aachen
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger Kickers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.