AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.13 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives AS Eupen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AS Eupen win

68.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.56 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AS Eupen home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
KRC Genk II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AS Eupen win68%

Draw17%

KRC Genk II win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.2%
2–08.2%
3–17.9%
1–17.2%
3–07.0%

Recent form

AS Eupen

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RSC Anderlecht II · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Liège · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Patro Eisden · 2-1 (W)

KRC Genk II

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Virton · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokeren-Temse · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · AS Eupen 4-1 KRC Genk II (Challenger Pro League)
2026-01-30T19:00:00.000Z · AS Eupen 0-2 KRC Genk II (Challenger Pro League)
2025-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · AS Eupen 2-1 KRC Genk II (Challenger Pro League)
2025-02-16T18:15:00.000Z · AS Eupen 0-0 KRC Genk II (Challenger Pro League)
2024-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · AS Eupen 3-1 KRC Genk II (Challenger Pro League)

Challenger Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Beerschot VA	7	6	0	1	12	18
2	Dender	7	6	0	1	9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	5	0	1	8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	4	0	2	2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	4	0	3	-2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	3	1	2	5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	3	1	2	2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	2	0	5	-4	6
13	Liège	7	1	2	4	-7	5
14	Seraing United	7	0	2	5	-7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AS Eupen win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.