· Analysis updated 12:09 UTC
AS Jeunesse Esch vs Etzella Ettelbruck Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for AS Jeunesse Esch and 1.60 for Etzella Ettelbruck, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives AS Jeunesse Esch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AS Jeunesse Esch win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Jeunesse Esch home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Etzella Ettelbruck away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
AS Jeunesse Esch
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bastendorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 5-2 (W)
Etzella Ettelbruck
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Schengen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-04-16T14:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 0-3 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2022-11-06T14:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 6-0 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2022-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 5-1 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2021-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 1-2 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2021-04-05T16:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 1-1 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2020-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 1-1 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2019-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 1-1 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2019-03-10T15:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 1-1 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
- 2018-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · AS Jeunesse Esch 1-0 Etzella Ettelbruck (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Jeunesse Esch win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.