· Analysis updated 05:45 UTC
AS Kigali vs Gasogi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for AS Kigali and 0.74 for Gasogi United, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives AS Kigali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Kigali home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gasogi United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 33% / 36% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for AS Kigali and 0.74 for Gasogi United, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.6%
- 1–017.0%
- 0–116.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
AS Kigali
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etoile de l'Est · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Marines · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musanze · 2-1 (W)
Gasogi United
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Mukura | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Gicumbi | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marines | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Sunrise | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Musanze | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Gasogi United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Police | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.