Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium · Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for AS Marsa and 0.44 for CS Hammam-Lif, a combined total of 1.14. That distribution gives AS Marsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 43%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 11% for over 2.5 goals and 18% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 32%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
79.8% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 0.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Marsa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CS Hammam-Lif away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 37% / 43% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for AS Marsa and 0.44 for CS Hammam-Lif, a combined 1.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
57%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–031.9%
- 1–022.4%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
AS Marsa
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Sahel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Tunis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 0-1 (L)
CS Hammam-Lif
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Tunis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CA Bizertin · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Monastir | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | ES Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Olympique Béja | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 79.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 18% and over 2.5 goals at 11%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.