Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
AS Marsa vs ES Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for AS Marsa and 1.43 for ES Sahel, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives ES Sahel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Marsa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ES Sahel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ES Sahel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for AS Marsa and 1.43 for ES Sahel, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
AS Marsa
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Sahel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Tunis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 0-1 (L)
ES Sahel
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Béja · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Marsa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · AS Marsa 1-0 ES Sahel (Ligue 1)
- 2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · AS Marsa 0-1 ES Sahel (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-29T13:30:00.000Z · AS Marsa 0-2 ES Sahel (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Monastir | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | ES Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Olympique Béja | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.