Stadio Olimpico · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
AS Roma vs Bologna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.41 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
AS Roma to Win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–06.8%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–06.6%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Roma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for AS Roma and 1.41 for Bologna, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
AS Roma to Win is the headline pick at 50% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 38/100 while season data is still limited.
Recent form
AS Roma
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)
Bologna
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.