Stadio Olimpico · Referee Matteo Marcenaro, Italy · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.97 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AS Roma win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Roma home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Roma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for AS Roma and 0.97 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 19.6% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 48.0% | 48.9% | 2.04 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.4% | 44.7% | 2.24 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.91 | 49.2% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.69 | 55.2% | 55.2% | 1.81 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.8% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.1% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.5% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 29.4% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 52.0% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.2% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Fiorentina
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.