AS Roma vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.78 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AS Roma win

66.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AS Roma home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Roma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for AS Roma and 0.78 for Genoa, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AS Roma win66%

Draw20%

Genoa win14%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.5%
2–012.5%
1–19.7%
2–19.7%
3–08.3%

Recent form

AS Roma

2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)

Genoa

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-08T17:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-2 Genoa (Serie A)
2025-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 3-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2025-01-17T19:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 3-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2024-09-15T10:30:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2024-05-19T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2023-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-4 Genoa (Serie A)
2023-01-12T20:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-0 Genoa (Coppa Italia)
2022-02-05T14:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2021-11-21T19:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2021-03-07T11:30:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-0 Genoa (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.