Stadio Olimpico · Referee Davide Massa, Italy · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
AS Roma vs Inter Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.17 for Inter, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Roma home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for AS Roma and 1.17 for Inter, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 53.3% vs market 37.5%, edge +15.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 37.5% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +15.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.2% | 71.6% | 1.40 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.9% | 65.2% | 1.53 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 28.4% | 3.52 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.6% | 36.8% | 2.72 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 35.2% | 34.8% | 2.87 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 64.9% | 63.2% | 1.58 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.5% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -15.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Inter
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-2 Inter (Serie A)
- 2026-04-05T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-5 Inter (Serie A)
- 2025-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-1 Inter (Serie A)
- 2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-0 Inter (Serie A)
- 2024-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-1 Inter (Serie A)
- 2024-02-10T17:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-4 Inter (Serie A)
- 2023-10-29T17:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-1 Inter (Serie A)
- 2023-05-06T16:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-2 Inter (Serie A)
- 2022-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-1 Inter (Serie A)
- 2022-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-3 Inter (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.