AS Roma vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.50 for Lille, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AS Roma win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AS Roma home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lille away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Roma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for AS Roma and 1.50 for Lille, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AS Roma win49%

Draw22%

Lille win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.1%
2–19.1%
1–26.8%
2–26.8%
3–16.0%

Recent form

AS Roma

2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)

Lille

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-10-02T16:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-1 Lille (UEFA Europa League)

UEFA Champions League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	7	6
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	5	6
5	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Sporting CP	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4	6
8	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Real Betis	2	2	0	0	2	6
10	Bayern München	2	1	1	0	5	4
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Como	2	1	0	1	2	3
13	Manchester United	2	1	0	1	2	3
14	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atletico Madrid	2	1	0	1	1	3
16	Club Brugge KV	2	1	0	1	0	3
17	Manchester City	2	1	0	1	0	3
18	Borussia Dortmund	2	1	0	1	0	3
19	Lens	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	AEK Athens FC	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-2	3
22	Sabah FA	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Feyenoord	2	1	0	1	-3	3
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	1	0	1	-4	3
25	AS Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Viking	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Fenerbahçe	2	0	1	1	-6	1
29	Inter	2	0	0	2	-2	0
30	FC Porto	2	0	0	2	-3	0
31	Slavia Praha	2	0	0	2	-3	0
32	Napoli	2	0	0	2	-3	0
33	Lask Linz	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	Lille	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Galatasaray	2	0	0	2	-5	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.