Stadio Olimpico · Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
AS Roma vs Udinese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.38 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AS Roma win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Roma home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Udinese away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
AS Roma
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
Udinese
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-02T19:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-1 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2025-11-09T17:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-0 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2025-01-26T14:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-1 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2024-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 3-0 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2024-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 2-1 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2023-11-26T17:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 3-1 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2023-04-16T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 3-0 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2022-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 0-4 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2022-03-13T17:00:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-1 Udinese (Serie A)
- 2021-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · AS Roma 1-0 Udinese (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.