Stadio Olimpico · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
AS Roma vs Venezia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.85 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AS Roma win
75.6% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Roma home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Venezia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Roma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for AS Roma and 0.85 for Venezia, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–18.0%
Recent form
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Venezia
- 2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.