Soliman Municipal Stadium · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
AS Soliman vs AS Gabes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for AS Soliman and 0.91 for AS Gabes, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives AS Soliman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AS Soliman win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Soliman home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AS Gabes away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Soliman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for AS Soliman and 0.91 for AS Gabes, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
AS Soliman
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sfax Railways · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Mégrine · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BS Bouhajla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 0-3 (L)
AS Gabes
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Soliman · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JS Kairouanaise · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Soliman win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.