AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for AS Trencin and 1.53 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives AS Trencin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AS Trencin home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dukla Banská Bystrica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Trencin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for AS Trencin and 1.53 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AS Trencin win38%

Draw24%

Dukla Banská Bystrica win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.2%
1–07.2%

Recent form

AS Trencin

2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Artis · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 1-4 (L)

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vranov nad Topľou · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Trencin · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dunajska Streda	11	9	2	0	29	29
2	Spartak Trnava	12	6	4	2	10	22
3	Slovan Bratislava	11	6	3	2	14	21
4	Žilina	11	6	3	2	5	21
5	Podbrezová	12	5	2	5	-3	17
6	FK Košice	10	3	5	2	3	14
7	Zemplín Michalovce	12	4	2	6	-8	14
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	12	4	2	6	-10	14
9	Skalica	12	2	4	6	-10	10
10	Ružomberok	12	2	3	7	-14	9
11	AS Trencin	10	2	2	6	-9	8
12	Komárno	11	0	6	5	-7	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.