· Analysis updated 17:31 UTC
AS Trencin vs FK Košice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for AS Trencin and 3.00 for FK Košice, a combined total of 4.90. That distribution gives FK Košice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FK Košice win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AS Trencin home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FK Košice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Košice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 23% / 17% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for AS Trencin and 3.00 for FK Košice, a combined 4.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.4%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–44.8%
Recent form
AS Trencin
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Artis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 1-4 (L)
FK Košice
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Komárno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Trnava · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Harichovce · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Komárno | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Košice win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.