AS Trencin vs Ružomberok Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for AS Trencin and 1.53 for Ružomberok, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives AS Trencin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AS Trencin win

48.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AS Trencin home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ružomberok away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AS Trencin win48%

Draw22%

Ružomberok win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.1%
2–19.0%
1–26.9%
2–26.8%
1–06.0%

Recent form

AS Trencin

2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Artis · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 1-4 (L)

Ružomberok

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Opava · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemplín Michalovce · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Trnava · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 3-4 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2026-03-21T14:30:00.000Z · AS Trencin 3-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2025-12-13T14:30:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-0 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2025-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-3 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2025-04-12T13:30:00.000Z · AS Trencin 2-2 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2024-11-09T14:30:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-0 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2024-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2023-11-24T16:30:00.000Z · AS Trencin 0-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
2023-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · AS Trencin 4-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)

Super Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dunajska Streda	9	7	2	0	23	23
2	Spartak Trnava	10	6	3	1	13	21
3	Žilina	10	6	3	1	6	21
4	Slovan Bratislava	9	5	2	2	11	17
5	Podbrezová	10	4	2	4	-5	14
6	FK Košice	9	3	4	2	3	13
7	Zemplín Michalovce	10	4	1	5	-5	13
8	Dukla Banská Bystrica	10	3	1	6	-11	10
9	Skalica	10	2	3	5	-8	9
10	Komárno	10	0	6	4	-6	6
11	Ružomberok	10	1	3	6	-10	6
12	AS Trencin	9	1	2	6	-11	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AS Trencin win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.