· Analysis updated 18:18 UTC
ASA Aarhus vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for ASA Aarhus and 1.42 for Hørsholm-Usserød, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives ASA Aarhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ASA Aarhus win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ASA Aarhus home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hørsholm-Usserød away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASA Aarhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for ASA Aarhus and 1.42 for Hørsholm-Usserød, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.9% | 76.7% | 1.30 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.9% | 31.7% | 3.15 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 54.7% | 55.0% | 1.82 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 44.8% | 45.0% | 2.22 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.2% | 23.3% | 4.29 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 70.3% | 68.3% | 1.46 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
ASA Aarhus
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Helsingor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holbæk B&I · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brønshøj · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Næsby · 1-0 (W)
Hørsholm-Usserød
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus Fremad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holbæk B&I · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Næsby · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brønshøj · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Næsby | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Sundby | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | ASA Aarhus | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | Ishøj | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 15 |
| 10 | Frem | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Holstebro | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 13 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ASA Aarhus win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.